Evening Update, January 18th

Accuweather forecast info for the week:
Phoenix, AZ
15-Day Forecast
Monday, January 18, 2010
WeatherAlarm™!
Heavy rain occurring on Jan 18 | Jan 19 | Jan 20 | Jan 21 | Jan 22.
Total amount 7.09 Inches. [Bolding is mine.]

More info and serious preparedness warnings for coming stormy week:

Local broadcast news has serious messages about preparedness for local storm effect.
They are really stressing being prepared for power outages, communicating with family members and, because of possible heavy rains at the end of the week, they are seriously warning about flooding. Like any place, if we get too much rain too fast we’ve got flooding problems. This is mostly in more north of Phoenix but parts of town can get flooded. They are talking about kinds of walkie talkies that can be used for emerencies and bug-out bags if you’re in areas where you could be evacuated.

AZcentral.com

“The first of a series of storms will move through the state today bringing a chance of rain and snow. Expect considerable cloudiness and about a 50% chance of rain in the Valley during the day. Rain chances increase tonight, and by tomorrow morning, Valley rainfall totals will range from .25"-1". Heavier rainfall will be possible in the higher elevations north and east of the Valley where up to 2" of accumulation is possible. It's also going to be a bit breezy today, with winds up to 10-20 mph, gusting to 30.

Snow showers can also be expected all day in the High Country, where they will receive 1"-3" of during the day. The snowfall will pick up by this evening and overnight, where moderate to heavy snow is possible. By tomorrow afternoon, after this first storm has passes, 6"-12" of accumulation is expected above 6,000'.

Because of the snowfall expected up north, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from noon today, through noon Tuesday.

There's a chance of precipitation in the state, each and every day this week, as we are currently in an El Nino pattern. We are in a moderate to strong El Nino, which means the jet stream has shifted into a position where it acts as a conveyor belt, allowing a series of storms to move through the state, one after the other. The second storm will move through Arizona Tuesday night, through Wednesday. This second storm will bring an additional .5"-1" of rainfall in the Valley, and another 6"-12" of snow up north, above 5,500'.

ALERT! The third storm set move through the state on Thursday looks to be stronger and wetter than the previous two. We're expecting strong winds with winds up over 40 mph in some locations, along with the possibility of thunderstorms as well. The main threat with this storm will be an increase in precipitation intensity, and higher snow levels which could cause significant snow melt and flash flooding will be possible. The snow level will start out at 8,000' and eventually drop down to 5,500' by Thursday night. New snowfall totals by Friday are expected to be up to 1-2 feet of additional accumulation.

To get the latest weather forecast go to our 24-hour weather channel, 12 News Weather Plus. You can find it on Cox Digital Cable 83, Qwest Choice TV 66, over the air 12.2, or on www.12news.azcentral.com.”

peace for tonight anyway,

shamba