Arizona Winter ....

Weather update from Shamba's front yard:

Flurries, yep, snow flurries ... at 2:45-2:55 p.m. today.

I wondered what that white stuff was on my black pants hanging on the patio furniture ... then it was all around me for a few moments .... and I recognized it, snow, very small flakes and nothing lasted very long once it hit the ground or bushes.

One of my neighbor's kids cried: "Look, snow!"

Haven't seen it in almost 20 years here. It sometimes hits the ground but it doesn't last beyond a couple of minutes.

Just my few flakes worth,

Shamba


Southern Arizona is very cold today and northern Arizona is inundated with the snow from a large winter storm the past 24 hours. Roads to Flagstaff have been closed just past Sedona, the snow and wind creating great snow drifts make driving too dangerous.

It's 1:00 p.m. here MST, in Phoenix in my front yard and our temps are dropping from mid 40s the past hour I'll bet.

We had good rain from the storm but now the sky is mostly clear and it is cold out there. It's only 48-50 in Phoenix today! And there's a wind of about 15-20 miles and hour. It' supposed to be that cold for the next two days.

I haven't been this cold in years here at home! Of course, it was easily this cold when I lived in the Maryland-DC area.

We're not going to be much over 50 degrees for the next two days and very clear cold nights are starting tonight; temps tonight are supposed to be 19-29 degrees. I’m definitely covering plants for the next 3 nights.

One station this morning was saying it could be cold enough tomorrow morning to maybe worry about rained streets turning to ice. I haven't seen snow flurries here in 20 years and we can get fog in the winter but I've never seen ice on our roads.

I haven't wrapped my head up in years but my ears hurt so after being in the wind today I had to put on something. I just had too much to do today to let it go another day.

People who ccame to warm southern Arizona to see the bowl games here are in for a surprise as far as daily temperature are. Northern Arizona is all snowed in. Most of the roads north from Phoenix were closed the last day or so. The roads may be open this afternoon.

peace, Shamba

Not much to say lately ....

Not much doing these days but solar cooking outside. Solar cooking these days is as much of a one pot affair as I can possibly make it because of the heat. So, meals are meat with vegetables, rice with lentils or beans and vegetables in a side pot. Actually that’s 2 pots, I know. 

Dehydrating tomatoes this Monday and Tuesday.

Heat so far this summer: We usually have an “average” of 18 days of 110 or more in the summer, figured as June, July and August. So far, we’ve had 8-9 days of these. I don’t remember how many we had last summer.

I've been working on sewing/mending projects inside. If I can get the simple mending stuff done, or get rid of the garment, I'll have a one foot high pile of "stuff" gone!

onwards, shamba

Snippet of Phoenix Budget Struggle

From www.ktar.com:

by KTAR Newsroom (February 24th, 2010 @ 1:27pm) PHOENIX - Hundreds of Phoenix firefighters have voted unanimously to take a 2 percent pay cut and four furlough days over the next two years to save jobs.

The head of the United Phoenix Firefighters Association Pete Gorraiz (guh-'RYE-us) says the pay cuts will save three engine companies and 42 jobs.

Gorraiz says the Phoenix Fire Department will lose 40 jobs but those will be offset by retirements that will happen by June, meaning that no firefighters will have to face layoffs.

Phoenix Fire Chief Bob Khan tells KTAR Radio in Phoenix that firefighters like what they do, believe in what they do and want to protect the community and save jobs for fellow firefighters.

The final city budget hasn't been set but it will be in early March. No matter what they do the city council's action seem to enrage somebody, lots of somebodies. the public hasn't come to realize yet that less and less is what's ahead of us for a few years.

I don't blame "somebodies" for being angry. If I was 30 years younger--I'm so old I can say that now!--I would be very angry for the things I would not have in my life that I expected to have, and angry because of my children not having these things either. And not just expected material things but the choices of traveling, pursuing almost any interest I wanted and finding people to share that will also be lessened in the coming years.

Peace , shamba

Taxes taxes in Arizona ....

this is just a quick note about 2 tax things that happened this past week:

--Governor Brewer has been asking since last January, when she took over for Janet Napolitano who resigned to be part of Obama government, for a public vote on a 1 % sales tax.

--Divided Phoenix City Council voted to put a 2% tax on food in the city. It's supposed to expire in 5 years. Public hearings are scheduled for the next month or so for the public to react to the proposed budget, including the food sales tax. I remember when we did away with the tax on food in the early 1980s. So far have we retreated? the city was very flush with money in the early 1980s, I was still working for them then and we got very generous raises.
peace for now,

shamba

Now, It's Christmas Eve and I'm not going anywhere today. I was out to get a couple of specific things at a store but ended up in 2 shopping center parking lots and two grocery parking lots driving around looking for parking places. Dangerous these lot on the week before christmas! I picked up one thing at Safeway to make my sald for donna's house on christmas Day.

I always feel like the world takes a Time Out on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for a couple of days of peace and safety.

Merry Christmas and S and I are off to Donna and Steve's for christmas dinner. :)

Peaxce to All, shamba

Dec 17th Notes:

Well, what a wonderful day for effective government news! NOT!

The whole health care reform bill in its present form might as well be thrown out and started over again. That’s the Feds.
The AZ state legislature had its 4th—4TH!—special session to fix the 2010 budget and nothun’ absolutely nothing happened today.
By the time they get in session in January and go to July, or longer, they will have twice as much budget deficit to fix for the 2011 budget and whatever is leftover from the 2010 budget.

My point in mentioning this at this blog is not to keep to keep track of what the feds and stat leg are doing in detail and how they’re ineffective at the moment. It’s only to provide a fell for the times we’re living in.

I feel so much cognitive dissonance, or head splitting, from looking at reality two ways. The way it has been, the way it’s going and what I see and sense coming round the bend. The past two years have brought the two sides closer and closer, perhaps this is the year they somehow connect? We’re just right at the edge of finding ourselves in worse circumstances than any of us, Americans, I mean, thought we’d ever “devolve” to in post-World war II America.

shamba.

December 3

I wanted to post this for my own record of how things are going here and also I may look back at this from a later perspective. I did that with some of the days of the stock market crash in 2008. This is one article with the proper link to give credit for it and a link or two more.

Annual economic forecast in Phornix –State economy in worst shape in like since my whole lifetime (!) 59 years. We won't reach pre-recession employment levels anyway, levels until 2014. Like the guy on Channel 12 news said, It’s a long climb back up.

Its important to note that this is economic/financial. Peak Oil/Peak Energy/Peak Everything is NOT figured into this situation.

http://asunews.asu.edu/20091202_business_economicforecastluncheon

2010 forecasts revealed at annual Economic Forecast Luncheon

Arizona is slowly moving down a long road to economic recovery, according to experts today at the 46th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon co-sponsored by Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business and JPMorgan Chase. More than 1,000 people crowded into the Phoenix Convention Center to hear whether tough times will soon be over, and the 2010 forecast news was not pleasant.

"Arizona consumers and businesses are in the state's worst economic downturn, by far, in modern times," said Professor Lee McPheters, director of the W. P. Carey School of Business' JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center. "In fact, 2009 saw the first personal income decline for Arizonans since records have been kept. Personal income for the year may be down as much as 2 percent."

McPheters says Arizona lost more than 240,000 jobs over the past two years. He expects the state to lose another 24,300 jobs next year. Arizona was officially the worst state in the nation for job growth between October 2008 and October 2009, with an unemployment rate reaching 9.3 percent this October. McPheters, who is also editor of the Arizona and Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast publications, does not expect to see the state return to 2007 job levels until 2013.

He adds the holidays won't bring much economic cheer. Retail sales for the year in Arizona are expected to be 10 to 15 percent lower in 2009 than 2008. In addition, McPheters says state budget problems will persist because of less tax revenue coming in, less population growth than previous downturns, and mandatory spending dedicated to designated programs through legally protected formulas.

On the national front, Anthony Chan, managing director and chief economist for JPMorgan Chase Private Client Services, had similar negative news. He explained that since 1954, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged about 5.8 percent in the first four quarters of economic recovery, but a number of factors indicate we won't see a boost like that after this recession.

"Americans' household wealth has plunged by an average of about $5,000, and people are also saving more, so we are not likely to experience the level of consumer spending that usually helps to lead us out of recession," Chan says.

However, he added there are a few good signs on the horizon. He says companies are contributing to fixed investments to improve their productivity and profits as the economy recovers. During the third quarter of 2009, the preliminary real GDP was up 0.9 percent, and inventories are likely to grow from there. He also says the government is determined to avoid a double-dip recession, so it will probably contribute 0.2 to 0.3 percent toward real GDP growth next year.

"We can still come out with a real GDP growth rate that lies within 2 to 2.5 percent," says Chan. "While such growth is unlikely to close the current negative output gap, it is likely we will continue to build momentum over the next several calendar quarters."

The real estate and construction forecast included some positive news only from the single-family home market. Elliott D. Pollack, chief executive officer of the well-known Scottsdale firm Elliott D. Pollack and Company, says local housing prices have finally flattened out, and multiple listing prices are up 11.7 percent since they hit bottom in April. However, there are more than 50,000 units now in the foreclosure process in Maricopa County, with more foreclosures on the way. Pollack believes there were 80,000 excess single-family homes and condo units in the market as of 2009's second quarter.

"Unfortunately, it appears a high percentage of resales have been purchased by investors," says Pollack. "Up to 40 percent of homes purchased in August, for example, were bought by ‘absentee owners,' meaning many of them are likely to go back on the market in the next two years. While I do believe Phoenix will grow again, we could easily have to wait until 2013 or 2014."

Things are even worse in the commercial market, according to Pollack. He says apartment vacancies could exceed 13 to 14 percent at the peak. Office vacancies will reach their highest level ever next year, exceeding 27 percent. Industrial vacancy rates could reach or equal the all-time-high vacancy seen in the Valley in 1986.

"Overall, based on history, it could take a decade before prices get back to the 2008 peaks," says Pollack. "What this suggests is that the overall level of commercial building, which is already down significantly, will come to a screeching halt next year. From an economic development standpoint, the situation could be a positive because a large amount of inexpensive space will be available for companies that want to expand or move here."

More details and analysis, including slides from the luncheon presentations, are available at http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu.

And, second thing I wanted to post. I liked this idea from a blog I read regularly. It was a few months ago and it was called Time for a Consumption Strike. Looks like Denninger’s (market-ticker.denninger.net) consumption strike will be a permanent way to live:

"....Until then the position of those who wish to join is simple: No non-essential purchases of anything are made. Period.

What's an essential purchase? Here's the list:

Enough food to eat at home. No more eating out.
Rent and utilities.
Essential medical services.
Enough fuel to get to and from work.

In addition any "excess withholding" is stopped; if you are getting a big fat refund from the IRS every year you are loaning the government your money at zero interest until April. Stop that; it’s stupid. Change your W4 so you get exactly nothing back or owe a tiny amount; if you pay estimates pay only that which you must and not one dime more.

Note that it is unlawful to use your W4 to intentionally under-withhold, but you are in fact not obligated to pay one more dime in tax than you actually owe. There is nothing wrong with adjusting withholding to match (as close as you reasonably can) your actual tax obligation.
Put the money you save (it will be a lot!) into a non-TARP Credit Union if you have one available to you, or a non-TARP local bank if you do not. Spend none of it."

Peace to all, Shamba

April 1-3 Update

April 3
The dryers were all full and still had about 15-20 minutes to go when I got my 2 wash loads of laundry this afternoon. I didn’t realize that all 4 were bull when I put my laundry in. So, I decided it was a good time to try the clothesline idea. Last summer sometime, I picked up a good sized but easy to carry folding laundry basket, clothesline and 2 packages of clothes pins.
I hung the pants and knit tops and shirts on hangars and hung them in the bathroom. I always hang better pants, capris and shorts, not jeans, inside. Other things, except for denim things, to in a dryer. Denim gets hung on the bushes in the front of the house until dark—they’re usually dry much sooner than that anyway. And it’s not so classy to have clothes hanging all over the landscaping for more than one afternoon.

Anyway, I tied up the clothesline and hung out the undies and socks and some prs of knit shorts went on the patio chairs. And no one will see them, unless they peek over the block wall. J
That didn’t take long either. And saved me 25 to 50 cents.

Oh, yes, unemployment is up after March figures to 8.5% and what was that about unemployment going to 9% by the end of 2009?? (Someone made that prediction even as late as the end of February) If we keep going this way it will be like 12% by the end of Dec.

Off to do something positive,
shamba

April 1 2009

Some latest Arizona Econ Info:
-On local HBC channel 12 on 6:00 p.m. news (3-31-09) leading story was that the average home price in Phoenix (area or metro incorporated area?) in March 07 was 255,000; in March 09 (now) it’s 150,00; a 53% drop. (I didn’t do the math I just wrote down what they said on air)
Some other US news: from various sources online.
-Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted for a 14th straight month in March as factories kept on cutting production amid the economic downturn that this month becomes the longest since the Great Depression.
-The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008. President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Either met with the chief executives of the nation’s 12 biggest banks on March 27 at the White House to enlist their support to thaw a 20-month freeze in bank lending.
-“Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 742,000 workers in March, pointing to no relief in sight for the labor market amid the longest recession in seven decades, a private report based on payroll data showed today. The drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge was larger than economists forecast and the most since records began in 2001. February’s reading was revised to show cut of 706,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 697,000.Companies are slashing staff as tight credit conditions and shrinking household wealth cause sales to shrink. The Labor Department may report in two days that employers cut payrolls in March for a 15th consecutive month, putting jobs losses in the current downturn at more than 5 million, according to a Bloomberg survey. "The weakness is distributed across all components of the economy," Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis, said in a conference call. "We are going to see several more months of serious bleeding before we see lesser job losses."
-"The pace of decline is slowing down, that’s important," David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor’s in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. "It is too early to look for a turnaround, but maybe it is time to start saying that things are not getting as bad as quickly as they were earlier."
-The OECD predicted that world trade will shrink by 13.2pc in 2009. The forecast is worse than those from the World Trade Organisation and World Bank and indicates a faster and more widespread implosion of imports and exports than in any single year during the 1930s.
--The USDA said farmers intend to plant the nation's 21 biggest crops on 7.8 million fewer acres than last year, the biggest one-year drop since 1987, when the farm belt was mired in a debt crisis. The retreat is most dramatic in states like North Dakota, where farmers intend to plant 1.4 million fewer acres, and in Texas, where farmers could idle one million acres. Many growers still have time to change their plans for the growing season, which begins in mid-April across much of the farm belt. The USDA will survey farmers about actual plantings in June.

I’m waiting to see what M. says about my 2007 taxes before I decide what to do with the IRAs money.
Two more small stock transfers to do before I’m done with the estate stuff. Yeah!

Cheers,
shamba