Now, It's Christmas Eve and I'm not going anywhere today. I was out to get a couple of specific things at a store but ended up in 2 shopping center parking lots and two grocery parking lots driving around looking for parking places. Dangerous these lot on the week before christmas! I picked up one thing at Safeway to make my sald for donna's house on christmas Day.
I always feel like the world takes a Time Out on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for a couple of days of peace and safety.
Merry Christmas and S and I are off to Donna and Steve's for christmas dinner. :)
Peaxce to All, shamba
Dec 17th Notes:
Well, what a wonderful day for effective government news! NOT!
The whole health care reform bill in its present form might as well be thrown out and started over again. That’s the Feds.
The AZ state legislature had its 4th—4TH!—special session to fix the 2010 budget and nothun’ absolutely nothing happened today.
By the time they get in session in January and go to July, or longer, they will have twice as much budget deficit to fix for the 2011 budget and whatever is leftover from the 2010 budget.
My point in mentioning this at this blog is not to keep to keep track of what the feds and stat leg are doing in detail and how they’re ineffective at the moment. It’s only to provide a fell for the times we’re living in.
I feel so much cognitive dissonance, or head splitting, from looking at reality two ways. The way it has been, the way it’s going and what I see and sense coming round the bend. The past two years have brought the two sides closer and closer, perhaps this is the year they somehow connect? We’re just right at the edge of finding ourselves in worse circumstances than any of us, Americans, I mean, thought we’d ever “devolve” to in post-World war II America.
shamba.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
A Few Less Things to take my energy
Rain and dark clouds this afternoon.
For some reason, I was moved to empty the cabinet over the refrigerator. My finds were various: 5 old coffee makers glass carafes, some baskets, various containers, a Christmas Plastic plate I’ve hardly ever used. I also took some of the ornamental cats made from rabbit fur from the computer room and several of the smaller stuffed animals I’m not attached to for passing on to someone else. Everything but the stuffed animals was bagged for Goodwill. Two dress jackets in good condition were bagged for going to Sal Army or Goodwill. The animals are in another box waiting for me to inspect them.
Remaining animals move from the table next to the computer to my bedroom with some other stuffed animals.
I have a lot of room now in the cabinet over the fridge and less cluttered look to my one terribly cluttered room.
shamba
For some reason, I was moved to empty the cabinet over the refrigerator. My finds were various: 5 old coffee makers glass carafes, some baskets, various containers, a Christmas Plastic plate I’ve hardly ever used. I also took some of the ornamental cats made from rabbit fur from the computer room and several of the smaller stuffed animals I’m not attached to for passing on to someone else. Everything but the stuffed animals was bagged for Goodwill. Two dress jackets in good condition were bagged for going to Sal Army or Goodwill. The animals are in another box waiting for me to inspect them.
Remaining animals move from the table next to the computer to my bedroom with some other stuffed animals.
I have a lot of room now in the cabinet over the fridge and less cluttered look to my one terribly cluttered room.
shamba
Saturday, December 12, 2009
I lost some produce in the past few days but not much. Two pears were hiding in the back of a fridge shelf and died there :), some arugala didn't make it to cooking.
I dehydrated a bunch of green beans I'd gotten but then I intended to do that with them anyway so there was no risk of any of them going to waste.
I cooked two turkey legs on some greens, kale, onions and some parsley and seasonings. The greens were okay but i wasn't fond of the turkey legs. I loved those when i was a kid maybe it was just the way it tasted that particular day.. Anyway the cats were very grateful for the turkey meat! If I hadn't given it to the cats, I would have done some casserole thing with pasta, veggies and baking the whole thing.
This challenge has been worth doing and a longer one can teach you how well you can do with things over a longer stretch of time.
Risa, about the almond roca...lol!
May all of you have a good weekend and don't let the holiday crazies get to you. Two weeks till chrismas and it all begins to press in on you!.
Peace to all,
Shamba
I dehydrated a bunch of green beans I'd gotten but then I intended to do that with them anyway so there was no risk of any of them going to waste.
I cooked two turkey legs on some greens, kale, onions and some parsley and seasonings. The greens were okay but i wasn't fond of the turkey legs. I loved those when i was a kid maybe it was just the way it tasted that particular day.. Anyway the cats were very grateful for the turkey meat! If I hadn't given it to the cats, I would have done some casserole thing with pasta, veggies and baking the whole thing.
This challenge has been worth doing and a longer one can teach you how well you can do with things over a longer stretch of time.
Risa, about the almond roca...lol!
May all of you have a good weekend and don't let the holiday crazies get to you. Two weeks till chrismas and it all begins to press in on you!.
Peace to all,
Shamba
Sunday, December 6, 2009
December 6
Alas! My neighbor Sue is moving out by the end of the month. She hopes to purchase a house on her own since prices are so good these days. She will keep her condo as a rental—many crossed fingers there! She says she couldn’t sell it as lenders aren’t lending to sell condos! I didn’t’ realize that.
Our complex has two units for sale, no. 11 (149,000) and no. 35 (125,000) are both asking for over 100,000! No. 35 has been for sale since nov. 2008 and they have not changed their price at all in the past year. Our units are about 800 square feet on ground level with good sized bedrooms and back and front patios. Even at the height of the real estate boom here they might not have sold for that much.
She hopes to purchase a house on her own since prices are so good these days. She's in her late 30s and wants more room. She will keep her condo as a rental—many crossed fingers there! She says she couldn’t sell it as lenders aren’t lending to sell condos at all. I didn’t realize that was happening.
All I could think of was, I hope it works for her but I wonder given how things are going to be in the next few years.
:(
Peace to me today, Shamba
Our complex has two units for sale, no. 11 (149,000) and no. 35 (125,000) are both asking for over 100,000! No. 35 has been for sale since nov. 2008 and they have not changed their price at all in the past year. Our units are about 800 square feet on ground level with good sized bedrooms and back and front patios. Even at the height of the real estate boom here they might not have sold for that much.
She hopes to purchase a house on her own since prices are so good these days. She's in her late 30s and wants more room. She will keep her condo as a rental—many crossed fingers there! She says she couldn’t sell it as lenders aren’t lending to sell condos at all. I didn’t realize that was happening.
All I could think of was, I hope it works for her but I wonder given how things are going to be in the next few years.
:(
Peace to me today, Shamba
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Dec 3 Food related post
I had some leftover green beans, some kale, celery of which some was about to go under (!) so I threw them in a pot with some chicken broth--not home made--and made a pretty decent soup out of it. I have enough of it for about two more meals.
I hadn't made soup with greens and it smelled okay and tasted okay but I just generally don't like cooked greens--limp and wierd looking. :) But it was okay!
Once upon a time I would have just looked, thought "Meh!" and tossed the bunch.
I'm trying to decide if I'm going to use the solar oven to cooke something in the next few days. I haven't decided what's next yet to be cooked now that the leftover cycle from last cooking time is about done.
Peace,
shamba
I hadn't made soup with greens and it smelled okay and tasted okay but I just generally don't like cooked greens--limp and wierd looking. :) But it was okay!
Once upon a time I would have just looked, thought "Meh!" and tossed the bunch.
I'm trying to decide if I'm going to use the solar oven to cooke something in the next few days. I haven't decided what's next yet to be cooked now that the leftover cycle from last cooking time is about done.
Peace,
shamba
December 3
I wanted to post this for my own record of how things are going here and also I may look back at this from a later perspective. I did that with some of the days of the stock market crash in 2008. This is one article with the proper link to give credit for it and a link or two more.
Annual economic forecast in Phornix –State economy in worst shape in like since my whole lifetime (!) 59 years. We won't reach pre-recession employment levels anyway, levels until 2014. Like the guy on Channel 12 news said, It’s a long climb back up.
Its important to note that this is economic/financial. Peak Oil/Peak Energy/Peak Everything is NOT figured into this situation.
http://asunews.asu.edu/20091202_business_economicforecastluncheon
2010 forecasts revealed at annual Economic Forecast Luncheon
Arizona is slowly moving down a long road to economic recovery, according to experts today at the 46th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon co-sponsored by Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business and JPMorgan Chase. More than 1,000 people crowded into the Phoenix Convention Center to hear whether tough times will soon be over, and the 2010 forecast news was not pleasant.
"Arizona consumers and businesses are in the state's worst economic downturn, by far, in modern times," said Professor Lee McPheters, director of the W. P. Carey School of Business' JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center. "In fact, 2009 saw the first personal income decline for Arizonans since records have been kept. Personal income for the year may be down as much as 2 percent."
McPheters says Arizona lost more than 240,000 jobs over the past two years. He expects the state to lose another 24,300 jobs next year. Arizona was officially the worst state in the nation for job growth between October 2008 and October 2009, with an unemployment rate reaching 9.3 percent this October. McPheters, who is also editor of the Arizona and Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast publications, does not expect to see the state return to 2007 job levels until 2013.
He adds the holidays won't bring much economic cheer. Retail sales for the year in Arizona are expected to be 10 to 15 percent lower in 2009 than 2008. In addition, McPheters says state budget problems will persist because of less tax revenue coming in, less population growth than previous downturns, and mandatory spending dedicated to designated programs through legally protected formulas.
On the national front, Anthony Chan, managing director and chief economist for JPMorgan Chase Private Client Services, had similar negative news. He explained that since 1954, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged about 5.8 percent in the first four quarters of economic recovery, but a number of factors indicate we won't see a boost like that after this recession.
"Americans' household wealth has plunged by an average of about $5,000, and people are also saving more, so we are not likely to experience the level of consumer spending that usually helps to lead us out of recession," Chan says.
However, he added there are a few good signs on the horizon. He says companies are contributing to fixed investments to improve their productivity and profits as the economy recovers. During the third quarter of 2009, the preliminary real GDP was up 0.9 percent, and inventories are likely to grow from there. He also says the government is determined to avoid a double-dip recession, so it will probably contribute 0.2 to 0.3 percent toward real GDP growth next year.
"We can still come out with a real GDP growth rate that lies within 2 to 2.5 percent," says Chan. "While such growth is unlikely to close the current negative output gap, it is likely we will continue to build momentum over the next several calendar quarters."
The real estate and construction forecast included some positive news only from the single-family home market. Elliott D. Pollack, chief executive officer of the well-known Scottsdale firm Elliott D. Pollack and Company, says local housing prices have finally flattened out, and multiple listing prices are up 11.7 percent since they hit bottom in April. However, there are more than 50,000 units now in the foreclosure process in Maricopa County, with more foreclosures on the way. Pollack believes there were 80,000 excess single-family homes and condo units in the market as of 2009's second quarter.
"Unfortunately, it appears a high percentage of resales have been purchased by investors," says Pollack. "Up to 40 percent of homes purchased in August, for example, were bought by ‘absentee owners,' meaning many of them are likely to go back on the market in the next two years. While I do believe Phoenix will grow again, we could easily have to wait until 2013 or 2014."
Things are even worse in the commercial market, according to Pollack. He says apartment vacancies could exceed 13 to 14 percent at the peak. Office vacancies will reach their highest level ever next year, exceeding 27 percent. Industrial vacancy rates could reach or equal the all-time-high vacancy seen in the Valley in 1986.
"Overall, based on history, it could take a decade before prices get back to the 2008 peaks," says Pollack. "What this suggests is that the overall level of commercial building, which is already down significantly, will come to a screeching halt next year. From an economic development standpoint, the situation could be a positive because a large amount of inexpensive space will be available for companies that want to expand or move here."
More details and analysis, including slides from the luncheon presentations, are available at http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu.
And, second thing I wanted to post. I liked this idea from a blog I read regularly. It was a few months ago and it was called Time for a Consumption Strike. Looks like Denninger’s (market-ticker.denninger.net) consumption strike will be a permanent way to live:
"....Until then the position of those who wish to join is simple: No non-essential purchases of anything are made. Period.
What's an essential purchase? Here's the list:
Enough food to eat at home. No more eating out.
Rent and utilities.
Essential medical services.
Enough fuel to get to and from work.
In addition any "excess withholding" is stopped; if you are getting a big fat refund from the IRS every year you are loaning the government your money at zero interest until April. Stop that; it’s stupid. Change your W4 so you get exactly nothing back or owe a tiny amount; if you pay estimates pay only that which you must and not one dime more.
Note that it is unlawful to use your W4 to intentionally under-withhold, but you are in fact not obligated to pay one more dime in tax than you actually owe. There is nothing wrong with adjusting withholding to match (as close as you reasonably can) your actual tax obligation.
Put the money you save (it will be a lot!) into a non-TARP Credit Union if you have one available to you, or a non-TARP local bank if you do not. Spend none of it."
Peace to all, Shamba
Annual economic forecast in Phornix –State economy in worst shape in like since my whole lifetime (!) 59 years. We won't reach pre-recession employment levels anyway, levels until 2014. Like the guy on Channel 12 news said, It’s a long climb back up.
Its important to note that this is economic/financial. Peak Oil/Peak Energy/Peak Everything is NOT figured into this situation.
http://asunews.asu.edu/20091202_business_economicforecastluncheon
2010 forecasts revealed at annual Economic Forecast Luncheon
Arizona is slowly moving down a long road to economic recovery, according to experts today at the 46th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon co-sponsored by Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business and JPMorgan Chase. More than 1,000 people crowded into the Phoenix Convention Center to hear whether tough times will soon be over, and the 2010 forecast news was not pleasant.
"Arizona consumers and businesses are in the state's worst economic downturn, by far, in modern times," said Professor Lee McPheters, director of the W. P. Carey School of Business' JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center. "In fact, 2009 saw the first personal income decline for Arizonans since records have been kept. Personal income for the year may be down as much as 2 percent."
McPheters says Arizona lost more than 240,000 jobs over the past two years. He expects the state to lose another 24,300 jobs next year. Arizona was officially the worst state in the nation for job growth between October 2008 and October 2009, with an unemployment rate reaching 9.3 percent this October. McPheters, who is also editor of the Arizona and Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast publications, does not expect to see the state return to 2007 job levels until 2013.
He adds the holidays won't bring much economic cheer. Retail sales for the year in Arizona are expected to be 10 to 15 percent lower in 2009 than 2008. In addition, McPheters says state budget problems will persist because of less tax revenue coming in, less population growth than previous downturns, and mandatory spending dedicated to designated programs through legally protected formulas.
On the national front, Anthony Chan, managing director and chief economist for JPMorgan Chase Private Client Services, had similar negative news. He explained that since 1954, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged about 5.8 percent in the first four quarters of economic recovery, but a number of factors indicate we won't see a boost like that after this recession.
"Americans' household wealth has plunged by an average of about $5,000, and people are also saving more, so we are not likely to experience the level of consumer spending that usually helps to lead us out of recession," Chan says.
However, he added there are a few good signs on the horizon. He says companies are contributing to fixed investments to improve their productivity and profits as the economy recovers. During the third quarter of 2009, the preliminary real GDP was up 0.9 percent, and inventories are likely to grow from there. He also says the government is determined to avoid a double-dip recession, so it will probably contribute 0.2 to 0.3 percent toward real GDP growth next year.
"We can still come out with a real GDP growth rate that lies within 2 to 2.5 percent," says Chan. "While such growth is unlikely to close the current negative output gap, it is likely we will continue to build momentum over the next several calendar quarters."
The real estate and construction forecast included some positive news only from the single-family home market. Elliott D. Pollack, chief executive officer of the well-known Scottsdale firm Elliott D. Pollack and Company, says local housing prices have finally flattened out, and multiple listing prices are up 11.7 percent since they hit bottom in April. However, there are more than 50,000 units now in the foreclosure process in Maricopa County, with more foreclosures on the way. Pollack believes there were 80,000 excess single-family homes and condo units in the market as of 2009's second quarter.
"Unfortunately, it appears a high percentage of resales have been purchased by investors," says Pollack. "Up to 40 percent of homes purchased in August, for example, were bought by ‘absentee owners,' meaning many of them are likely to go back on the market in the next two years. While I do believe Phoenix will grow again, we could easily have to wait until 2013 or 2014."
Things are even worse in the commercial market, according to Pollack. He says apartment vacancies could exceed 13 to 14 percent at the peak. Office vacancies will reach their highest level ever next year, exceeding 27 percent. Industrial vacancy rates could reach or equal the all-time-high vacancy seen in the Valley in 1986.
"Overall, based on history, it could take a decade before prices get back to the 2008 peaks," says Pollack. "What this suggests is that the overall level of commercial building, which is already down significantly, will come to a screeching halt next year. From an economic development standpoint, the situation could be a positive because a large amount of inexpensive space will be available for companies that want to expand or move here."
More details and analysis, including slides from the luncheon presentations, are available at http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu.
And, second thing I wanted to post. I liked this idea from a blog I read regularly. It was a few months ago and it was called Time for a Consumption Strike. Looks like Denninger’s (market-ticker.denninger.net) consumption strike will be a permanent way to live:
"....Until then the position of those who wish to join is simple: No non-essential purchases of anything are made. Period.
What's an essential purchase? Here's the list:
Enough food to eat at home. No more eating out.
Rent and utilities.
Essential medical services.
Enough fuel to get to and from work.
In addition any "excess withholding" is stopped; if you are getting a big fat refund from the IRS every year you are loaning the government your money at zero interest until April. Stop that; it’s stupid. Change your W4 so you get exactly nothing back or owe a tiny amount; if you pay estimates pay only that which you must and not one dime more.
Note that it is unlawful to use your W4 to intentionally under-withhold, but you are in fact not obligated to pay one more dime in tax than you actually owe. There is nothing wrong with adjusting withholding to match (as close as you reasonably can) your actual tax obligation.
Put the money you save (it will be a lot!) into a non-TARP Credit Union if you have one available to you, or a non-TARP local bank if you do not. Spend none of it."
Peace to all, Shamba
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
