I wonder … but I don’t expect anyone to really have the answers, I just wonder these things from time to time and they’ve been piling up in my head so here they are.
I wonder when or if we’ll start hearing the “D”epression word instead of the “R”ecession word or the “G”reater “R”ecession words …?
I wonder when we’ll have to watch all the local gas stations for which ones have gas to buy rather than watching which one has the best prices …
When will car dealerships, or any auto repair place, not have regular deliveries of the parts and stuff they need to repair cars?
Will they just say, “Come back tomorrow or a few days, we might/may have it then?”
I wonder when nail polish and nail polish remover won’t be so easily available …. I like polish and use it but I don’t have a clue what it’s made of, but something in it must be related to petroleum …
What about the elements of hair coloring and highlights that I get done by a good friend who has a local business …
When will there be fewer ball point pens—surely, their plastic and ink related to petroleum?
Will there ever be fewer kinds of cell phones to choose from?
Digital cameras come in all shapes and sizes of Mega Pixels? When will we see fewer of those available in stores?
And how long will film keep existing and will they stop developing/processing it? There are still people using film out there and I’m one of them although I have a small digital camera as well.
What about flatscreens used for tvs and computer display screens?
When do all the elements that go into electronics start becoming scarcer? Recycling of electronic parts, that’ll be a bigger business than it is now . ..
Will the city of Phoenix ever tell residents they’ll HAVE to conserve water?
Not just “encouraging” conservation but really having to learn to handle water differently to conserve it …
When or will local governments in the USA encourage residents to use rain water and rain barrels to help provide water for themselves? This assumes that governments/utilities will still have a part in delivering water to communities … .
How long will professional sports teams keep traveling around the US when there’s a crunch on gasoline/jet fuel? (I’m thinking of the US here but other countries have the professional sports, too.)
Will the PGA, WPGA, NFL, NHL and NBA (I’m probably leaving some sport league out of this that I don’t know about) just have smaller geographic groupings of competing teams? Maybe individual sport franchises in certain cities will just fold and not exist?
University and college sports teams and their various tiers of competition? Will they just wither away over time?
Will all kinds of tv get less over time, whether it’s cable/satellite/broadcast? Time and energy will be too expensive or available for these to exist the way they do now? Just paid tv/internet for those who can afford it?
Will grocery stores or farmer's markets have signs in places where certain foods used to be like "Bananas/Certain meats sold out and no more expected for a month or so." Or "No more Pomegranates/Apples/Pears/Almonds/Walnuts, etc. until next year." Meaning, next year's harvest, our allotment of seasonal food is gone for the year.
it's hard to push thoughts like these away anymore in the last couple of years, on this blustery, squally day with bursts of moderate rains. Another storm!
Shamba
Showing posts with label peak everything. Show all posts
Showing posts with label peak everything. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Thursday, December 3, 2009
December 3
I wanted to post this for my own record of how things are going here and also I may look back at this from a later perspective. I did that with some of the days of the stock market crash in 2008. This is one article with the proper link to give credit for it and a link or two more.
Annual economic forecast in Phornix –State economy in worst shape in like since my whole lifetime (!) 59 years. We won't reach pre-recession employment levels anyway, levels until 2014. Like the guy on Channel 12 news said, It’s a long climb back up.
Its important to note that this is economic/financial. Peak Oil/Peak Energy/Peak Everything is NOT figured into this situation.
http://asunews.asu.edu/20091202_business_economicforecastluncheon
2010 forecasts revealed at annual Economic Forecast Luncheon
Arizona is slowly moving down a long road to economic recovery, according to experts today at the 46th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon co-sponsored by Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business and JPMorgan Chase. More than 1,000 people crowded into the Phoenix Convention Center to hear whether tough times will soon be over, and the 2010 forecast news was not pleasant.
"Arizona consumers and businesses are in the state's worst economic downturn, by far, in modern times," said Professor Lee McPheters, director of the W. P. Carey School of Business' JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center. "In fact, 2009 saw the first personal income decline for Arizonans since records have been kept. Personal income for the year may be down as much as 2 percent."
McPheters says Arizona lost more than 240,000 jobs over the past two years. He expects the state to lose another 24,300 jobs next year. Arizona was officially the worst state in the nation for job growth between October 2008 and October 2009, with an unemployment rate reaching 9.3 percent this October. McPheters, who is also editor of the Arizona and Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast publications, does not expect to see the state return to 2007 job levels until 2013.
He adds the holidays won't bring much economic cheer. Retail sales for the year in Arizona are expected to be 10 to 15 percent lower in 2009 than 2008. In addition, McPheters says state budget problems will persist because of less tax revenue coming in, less population growth than previous downturns, and mandatory spending dedicated to designated programs through legally protected formulas.
On the national front, Anthony Chan, managing director and chief economist for JPMorgan Chase Private Client Services, had similar negative news. He explained that since 1954, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged about 5.8 percent in the first four quarters of economic recovery, but a number of factors indicate we won't see a boost like that after this recession.
"Americans' household wealth has plunged by an average of about $5,000, and people are also saving more, so we are not likely to experience the level of consumer spending that usually helps to lead us out of recession," Chan says.
However, he added there are a few good signs on the horizon. He says companies are contributing to fixed investments to improve their productivity and profits as the economy recovers. During the third quarter of 2009, the preliminary real GDP was up 0.9 percent, and inventories are likely to grow from there. He also says the government is determined to avoid a double-dip recession, so it will probably contribute 0.2 to 0.3 percent toward real GDP growth next year.
"We can still come out with a real GDP growth rate that lies within 2 to 2.5 percent," says Chan. "While such growth is unlikely to close the current negative output gap, it is likely we will continue to build momentum over the next several calendar quarters."
The real estate and construction forecast included some positive news only from the single-family home market. Elliott D. Pollack, chief executive officer of the well-known Scottsdale firm Elliott D. Pollack and Company, says local housing prices have finally flattened out, and multiple listing prices are up 11.7 percent since they hit bottom in April. However, there are more than 50,000 units now in the foreclosure process in Maricopa County, with more foreclosures on the way. Pollack believes there were 80,000 excess single-family homes and condo units in the market as of 2009's second quarter.
"Unfortunately, it appears a high percentage of resales have been purchased by investors," says Pollack. "Up to 40 percent of homes purchased in August, for example, were bought by ‘absentee owners,' meaning many of them are likely to go back on the market in the next two years. While I do believe Phoenix will grow again, we could easily have to wait until 2013 or 2014."
Things are even worse in the commercial market, according to Pollack. He says apartment vacancies could exceed 13 to 14 percent at the peak. Office vacancies will reach their highest level ever next year, exceeding 27 percent. Industrial vacancy rates could reach or equal the all-time-high vacancy seen in the Valley in 1986.
"Overall, based on history, it could take a decade before prices get back to the 2008 peaks," says Pollack. "What this suggests is that the overall level of commercial building, which is already down significantly, will come to a screeching halt next year. From an economic development standpoint, the situation could be a positive because a large amount of inexpensive space will be available for companies that want to expand or move here."
More details and analysis, including slides from the luncheon presentations, are available at http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu.
And, second thing I wanted to post. I liked this idea from a blog I read regularly. It was a few months ago and it was called Time for a Consumption Strike. Looks like Denninger’s (market-ticker.denninger.net) consumption strike will be a permanent way to live:
"....Until then the position of those who wish to join is simple: No non-essential purchases of anything are made. Period.
What's an essential purchase? Here's the list:
Enough food to eat at home. No more eating out.
Rent and utilities.
Essential medical services.
Enough fuel to get to and from work.
In addition any "excess withholding" is stopped; if you are getting a big fat refund from the IRS every year you are loaning the government your money at zero interest until April. Stop that; it’s stupid. Change your W4 so you get exactly nothing back or owe a tiny amount; if you pay estimates pay only that which you must and not one dime more.
Note that it is unlawful to use your W4 to intentionally under-withhold, but you are in fact not obligated to pay one more dime in tax than you actually owe. There is nothing wrong with adjusting withholding to match (as close as you reasonably can) your actual tax obligation.
Put the money you save (it will be a lot!) into a non-TARP Credit Union if you have one available to you, or a non-TARP local bank if you do not. Spend none of it."
Peace to all, Shamba
Annual economic forecast in Phornix –State economy in worst shape in like since my whole lifetime (!) 59 years. We won't reach pre-recession employment levels anyway, levels until 2014. Like the guy on Channel 12 news said, It’s a long climb back up.
Its important to note that this is economic/financial. Peak Oil/Peak Energy/Peak Everything is NOT figured into this situation.
http://asunews.asu.edu/20091202_business_economicforecastluncheon
2010 forecasts revealed at annual Economic Forecast Luncheon
Arizona is slowly moving down a long road to economic recovery, according to experts today at the 46th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon co-sponsored by Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business and JPMorgan Chase. More than 1,000 people crowded into the Phoenix Convention Center to hear whether tough times will soon be over, and the 2010 forecast news was not pleasant.
"Arizona consumers and businesses are in the state's worst economic downturn, by far, in modern times," said Professor Lee McPheters, director of the W. P. Carey School of Business' JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center. "In fact, 2009 saw the first personal income decline for Arizonans since records have been kept. Personal income for the year may be down as much as 2 percent."
McPheters says Arizona lost more than 240,000 jobs over the past two years. He expects the state to lose another 24,300 jobs next year. Arizona was officially the worst state in the nation for job growth between October 2008 and October 2009, with an unemployment rate reaching 9.3 percent this October. McPheters, who is also editor of the Arizona and Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast publications, does not expect to see the state return to 2007 job levels until 2013.
He adds the holidays won't bring much economic cheer. Retail sales for the year in Arizona are expected to be 10 to 15 percent lower in 2009 than 2008. In addition, McPheters says state budget problems will persist because of less tax revenue coming in, less population growth than previous downturns, and mandatory spending dedicated to designated programs through legally protected formulas.
On the national front, Anthony Chan, managing director and chief economist for JPMorgan Chase Private Client Services, had similar negative news. He explained that since 1954, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged about 5.8 percent in the first four quarters of economic recovery, but a number of factors indicate we won't see a boost like that after this recession.
"Americans' household wealth has plunged by an average of about $5,000, and people are also saving more, so we are not likely to experience the level of consumer spending that usually helps to lead us out of recession," Chan says.
However, he added there are a few good signs on the horizon. He says companies are contributing to fixed investments to improve their productivity and profits as the economy recovers. During the third quarter of 2009, the preliminary real GDP was up 0.9 percent, and inventories are likely to grow from there. He also says the government is determined to avoid a double-dip recession, so it will probably contribute 0.2 to 0.3 percent toward real GDP growth next year.
"We can still come out with a real GDP growth rate that lies within 2 to 2.5 percent," says Chan. "While such growth is unlikely to close the current negative output gap, it is likely we will continue to build momentum over the next several calendar quarters."
The real estate and construction forecast included some positive news only from the single-family home market. Elliott D. Pollack, chief executive officer of the well-known Scottsdale firm Elliott D. Pollack and Company, says local housing prices have finally flattened out, and multiple listing prices are up 11.7 percent since they hit bottom in April. However, there are more than 50,000 units now in the foreclosure process in Maricopa County, with more foreclosures on the way. Pollack believes there were 80,000 excess single-family homes and condo units in the market as of 2009's second quarter.
"Unfortunately, it appears a high percentage of resales have been purchased by investors," says Pollack. "Up to 40 percent of homes purchased in August, for example, were bought by ‘absentee owners,' meaning many of them are likely to go back on the market in the next two years. While I do believe Phoenix will grow again, we could easily have to wait until 2013 or 2014."
Things are even worse in the commercial market, according to Pollack. He says apartment vacancies could exceed 13 to 14 percent at the peak. Office vacancies will reach their highest level ever next year, exceeding 27 percent. Industrial vacancy rates could reach or equal the all-time-high vacancy seen in the Valley in 1986.
"Overall, based on history, it could take a decade before prices get back to the 2008 peaks," says Pollack. "What this suggests is that the overall level of commercial building, which is already down significantly, will come to a screeching halt next year. From an economic development standpoint, the situation could be a positive because a large amount of inexpensive space will be available for companies that want to expand or move here."
More details and analysis, including slides from the luncheon presentations, are available at http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu.
And, second thing I wanted to post. I liked this idea from a blog I read regularly. It was a few months ago and it was called Time for a Consumption Strike. Looks like Denninger’s (market-ticker.denninger.net) consumption strike will be a permanent way to live:
"....Until then the position of those who wish to join is simple: No non-essential purchases of anything are made. Period.
What's an essential purchase? Here's the list:
Enough food to eat at home. No more eating out.
Rent and utilities.
Essential medical services.
Enough fuel to get to and from work.
In addition any "excess withholding" is stopped; if you are getting a big fat refund from the IRS every year you are loaning the government your money at zero interest until April. Stop that; it’s stupid. Change your W4 so you get exactly nothing back or owe a tiny amount; if you pay estimates pay only that which you must and not one dime more.
Note that it is unlawful to use your W4 to intentionally under-withhold, but you are in fact not obligated to pay one more dime in tax than you actually owe. There is nothing wrong with adjusting withholding to match (as close as you reasonably can) your actual tax obligation.
Put the money you save (it will be a lot!) into a non-TARP Credit Union if you have one available to you, or a non-TARP local bank if you do not. Spend none of it."
Peace to all, Shamba
Sunday, July 19, 2009
July 12th:
July 12: Sunday:
These are my organization of thoughts on a lot of comments at blogs, etc. I read during the week.
1. permanently smaller economy; Not an V or U or W recovery but X! the X idea is from Robert Reich. as in impasse?? No way through go back? No, I know there’ll be no going back to what we had 2000-2006!
2. Permanent job losses after this down cycle. People have some money for unemployment, extensions, maybe savings maybe assets or things to sell. When they all run out? And when any work they find doesn’t pay for what they have been used to? Lose their houses, too?
3. Permanent smaller revenue for state and local govs. Every year, less and less available due to less spending due to people with no income to spend except for absolute necessities.
4. Permanent lessening of government services: education, police and security, infrastructure, social services, helpe to hospitals and various other organizations.
5. Permanent reduction in medical services available for those who depend on government for programs, elderly assistance like nursing homes available, other nonprofits don’t get any govet help and private help is dwindling: food banks, shelters, animals shelters, etc.
6. Healthservice, public and private permanent reduced. No meds available for chronic disease or various conditions, no insurance available, people sicken and die from various diseases. Emergency rooms can’t treat someone if they are so far gone with chronic conditions: diabetes, heart condition, etc. 7. Pensions and government mandated services are reduced to lack of funding. Service to
These are my organization of thoughts on a lot of comments at blogs, etc. I read during the week.
1. permanently smaller economy; Not an V or U or W recovery but X! the X idea is from Robert Reich. as in impasse?? No way through go back? No, I know there’ll be no going back to what we had 2000-2006!
2. Permanent job losses after this down cycle. People have some money for unemployment, extensions, maybe savings maybe assets or things to sell. When they all run out? And when any work they find doesn’t pay for what they have been used to? Lose their houses, too?
3. Permanent smaller revenue for state and local govs. Every year, less and less available due to less spending due to people with no income to spend except for absolute necessities.
4. Permanent lessening of government services: education, police and security, infrastructure, social services, helpe to hospitals and various other organizations.
5. Permanent reduction in medical services available for those who depend on government for programs, elderly assistance like nursing homes available, other nonprofits don’t get any govet help and private help is dwindling: food banks, shelters, animals shelters, etc.
6. Healthservice, public and private permanent reduced. No meds available for chronic disease or various conditions, no insurance available, people sicken and die from various diseases. Emergency rooms can’t treat someone if they are so far gone with chronic conditions: diabetes, heart condition, etc. 7. Pensions and government mandated services are reduced to lack of funding. Service to
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Feb 26
where I used to work is going to go away due to the AZ state budget issues! :( :( :0 Eek! This makes the economic stuff really closer than it was. There's a retirement party for one of the staff there that I'm going to today. I expect it may feel like a wake as well as a party! :/
Starting an online class next week I'm really looking forward to. It centers on how to adapt yourself and place to the coming changes, not all good, that could be/probably will be coming in the next few years. I have some ideas from previous readings at various blogs and books but the people who take the class and teachers will have some, too and I hope this will all help me with my ideas. It's things that could be done and that helps with anxiety and fears.
Otherwise, not much new here. Weather is warming up and is lovely. I smell citrus blossoms out there beginning to come out ... : )
Workshop at yoga studio this saturday morning, too.
end of estate papers by May 30th, I have assets to collect before then though.
Postponing major decisions in life until after estate is settled and this class is done.
feeling pretty good today,
shamba
DJA is hanging around in the 7,100-7300 range the past week or so....
Starting an online class next week I'm really looking forward to. It centers on how to adapt yourself and place to the coming changes, not all good, that could be/probably will be coming in the next few years. I have some ideas from previous readings at various blogs and books but the people who take the class and teachers will have some, too and I hope this will all help me with my ideas. It's things that could be done and that helps with anxiety and fears.
Otherwise, not much new here. Weather is warming up and is lovely. I smell citrus blossoms out there beginning to come out ... : )
Workshop at yoga studio this saturday morning, too.
end of estate papers by May 30th, I have assets to collect before then though.
Postponing major decisions in life until after estate is settled and this class is done.
feeling pretty good today,
shamba
DJA is hanging around in the 7,100-7300 range the past week or so....
Monday, November 10, 2008
November 10
well, let's see, pick whatever prediction you want below about the next year or so and beyond:
--this morning had some note as two of my sites about something really coming to test Obama in the first 6 months of his presidency; not just from Biden, from some foreign leaders and international intelligence chatter .... wonderful news. then again there's some feeling thatsomething might happen during the Election and Obama's inauguration.
Economic/Financial situation:
--Deflationary recession/depression;
--Inflationary probably Hyperinflationary economic contraction/recession/depression;
--Bailouts for 3 US automakers to be a "bridge loan" until the economy improves in the next year so before the end of 2009 people will be buying cars again;
--Contraction/Recession will last 12-18 months; roubini says this as well as others so does that mean it started in jan 2008 or started Fall 2008. that 6-8 months makes a difference to how people plan or think about it;
--After the severe recession--most blogs I read at least say we'll have at least 12 months of severity, more sever than anything in the post-WW2 era--there will be the oppotunity of a lifetime to buy stocks and equities;
--Or the severe recession after a year or so will morph into a depression, Depression 2.0 or Greater Depression depending on your point of view;
--Or at what would be the beginning of an upswing in the economoy, oil depletion on the downside of peak oil will be setting in and there will be NO upswing ever again for industrial society.
--If there's any kind of growth, due to the oil shortages, depletion rates and no if any new oil projects of ANY kind, it will be so very small it'll be negligible;
--After the recession will just come the Long Depression;
--Reduction to subsistence farming, rudimentary technology, real poverty everwhere in the world so that the world will be a much bigger place than it is now;
--You could also add in, madness, depression and suicide for many people facing the decline in their lives; disease possibilities ; starvation; great homelessness for many; more violence probably and just freaking out all the time.
--Public services, police, fire, emergency personnel will dwindle as local entities have no more money to spend on public services.
--then of course, there's climate change and how fast it's coming and when it will effect food supplies and what will it do to the weather in North America when there is no more ice at all at the North Pole anytime of year?????????????
--this of course doesn't cover the lack of electricty in southern Arizona where people will just go totally insane and kill each other and themselves over the crushing heat we get here ...
--I don't understand why some economists, financiers/bloggers prediction inflation and other prediction deflation ....
--If the US defaults, does that mean everything in our bank accounts dissapears like it never existed ....
--do I really need to get a new regrigerator since they might stop making them .... I could really use a new refrigerator--it almost freezes everything put into it! it's pretty old ...
Makes me wonder why I should pay my bills and keep going .. but I'm so curious to see how it all plays out! ;)
I stopped at Linen's N Things and Merwyn's today to see what stuff was available; they are both going out of business and big signs hang outside about liquidation sales. didnt' buy anything--I don't need anything but I think about putting stuff away for the future constantly and I wonder what people will do for Christmas shopping next year. I wondered that last hear at this time, too. :/
Circuit city doesn't have any signs up yet but the Phoenix stores are all being closed for good.
It's creepy to think how many other's may be going to be in the same situation even before Christmas/end of Year this year. :(
It's been 8 weeks since the mid-September stuff started and just about that long until the end of the year.
On a higher note: 70s weather is here and the cats are all doing well and so am I.
cheers,
Shamba
--this morning had some note as two of my sites about something really coming to test Obama in the first 6 months of his presidency; not just from Biden, from some foreign leaders and international intelligence chatter .... wonderful news. then again there's some feeling thatsomething might happen during the Election and Obama's inauguration.
Economic/Financial situation:
--Deflationary recession/depression;
--Inflationary probably Hyperinflationary economic contraction/recession/depression;
--Bailouts for 3 US automakers to be a "bridge loan" until the economy improves in the next year so before the end of 2009 people will be buying cars again;
--Contraction/Recession will last 12-18 months; roubini says this as well as others so does that mean it started in jan 2008 or started Fall 2008. that 6-8 months makes a difference to how people plan or think about it;
--After the severe recession--most blogs I read at least say we'll have at least 12 months of severity, more sever than anything in the post-WW2 era--there will be the oppotunity of a lifetime to buy stocks and equities;
--Or the severe recession after a year or so will morph into a depression, Depression 2.0 or Greater Depression depending on your point of view;
--Or at what would be the beginning of an upswing in the economoy, oil depletion on the downside of peak oil will be setting in and there will be NO upswing ever again for industrial society.
--If there's any kind of growth, due to the oil shortages, depletion rates and no if any new oil projects of ANY kind, it will be so very small it'll be negligible;
--After the recession will just come the Long Depression;
--Reduction to subsistence farming, rudimentary technology, real poverty everwhere in the world so that the world will be a much bigger place than it is now;
--You could also add in, madness, depression and suicide for many people facing the decline in their lives; disease possibilities ; starvation; great homelessness for many; more violence probably and just freaking out all the time.
--Public services, police, fire, emergency personnel will dwindle as local entities have no more money to spend on public services.
--then of course, there's climate change and how fast it's coming and when it will effect food supplies and what will it do to the weather in North America when there is no more ice at all at the North Pole anytime of year?????????????
--this of course doesn't cover the lack of electricty in southern Arizona where people will just go totally insane and kill each other and themselves over the crushing heat we get here ...
--I don't understand why some economists, financiers/bloggers prediction inflation and other prediction deflation ....
--If the US defaults, does that mean everything in our bank accounts dissapears like it never existed ....
--do I really need to get a new regrigerator since they might stop making them .... I could really use a new refrigerator--it almost freezes everything put into it! it's pretty old ...
Makes me wonder why I should pay my bills and keep going .. but I'm so curious to see how it all plays out! ;)
I stopped at Linen's N Things and Merwyn's today to see what stuff was available; they are both going out of business and big signs hang outside about liquidation sales. didnt' buy anything--I don't need anything but I think about putting stuff away for the future constantly and I wonder what people will do for Christmas shopping next year. I wondered that last hear at this time, too. :/
Circuit city doesn't have any signs up yet but the Phoenix stores are all being closed for good.
It's creepy to think how many other's may be going to be in the same situation even before Christmas/end of Year this year. :(
It's been 8 weeks since the mid-September stuff started and just about that long until the end of the year.
On a higher note: 70s weather is here and the cats are all doing well and so am I.
cheers,
Shamba
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
When will it happen? I think it's here NOW!
Regular gas: 3.97, 4.07, 4.17.
I have decided that all of the signs of the Big Day of Reckconing/downfall of fossifuel society/modern society/The Shit Hitting the Fan--is NOW! My readings in Doom have become main stream current events!
So, many things that I’ve been reading about for the past 3 ½ years were still “over the horizon.” Now, they are easily visible on the horizon and they’ve got us pretty well surrounded! Food prices, energy prices, gas prices, still bad drought in the US West, bees still in low supply this spring, no salmon fishing AT ALL on the west coast because of too small salmon populations—this is commercial fishing, too. Then there’s the daily business world in my state which probably applies to most other states these days: contracting economy, local governments budgets cut this year and facing more severe ones in the next year after that, property taxes revenue falling because of the shrinking housing market ….. which still shows no sign of bottoming out yet. Too much inventory and it’s growing because of foreclosures, new constructions finishing, etc.
In the NBC broadcast news this evening:
Airlines are cutting back severely on scheduled flights for the rest of the year; or after summer vacations. It’s just too expensive to keep flying the current schedules with the price of oil and their fuel needs. Major airports will have cutbacks in carriers and some smaller places will end up with very few carriers, even if they have been regional jets. Two years ago on The Oildrum.com I read some comment about an airline worker(?) at a conference remarking that in 10 years no planes will be flying at all, at least no commercial airlines.
GM is closing 4 plants that make SUV stuff; and they may discontinue the Hummer model! Hummers’ were quite the thing to have the past few years. Truck and SUV sales have not been good since the first of the year.
Quote from: Truck Sales Sink, Shaking Up Auto Market
Big Three Walloped By the Rush to Cars; Honda on the Rise
By JOSÉE VALCOURT and MATTHEW DOLANJune 4, 2008; Page B5 from WSJ
"Ford Motor Co.'s F-150 pickup truck has been the No. 1 seller almost every month over the past three decades. But in May, as consumers flocked to fuel-sipping models, two cars from Toyota and two from Honda Motor Co. outsold the F-150, pushing it down to the No. 5 spot in sales."
Electric cars are in the news again; or they seem to be more in the news to me.
There is some market in electricity prices—forward market?—that shows the fluctuations in electricity supply and prices. These fluctuations don’t appear on customer’s energy bills but it can predict the rise or fall of prices. There was a spike in this prices/supply in Mar/April and it showed a “75%” possible increase in electricity prices this summer. I don’t know if this applies to the whole US or what. It was in the WSJ on June 3 or 4th. I’ll try to find the link to it.
At least the **** Democratic primaries are over! Senator Obama looks like a definite for the Demo nominee; but I wouldn’t rule out senator Clinton trying something eve at the last minute to try again to get the position herself.
It seems quite a turnaround from the way things stood in public discourse and the national outlook and the economy just a year ago.
cheers,
shamba
I have decided that all of the signs of the Big Day of Reckconing/downfall of fossifuel society/modern society/The Shit Hitting the Fan--is NOW! My readings in Doom have become main stream current events!
So, many things that I’ve been reading about for the past 3 ½ years were still “over the horizon.” Now, they are easily visible on the horizon and they’ve got us pretty well surrounded! Food prices, energy prices, gas prices, still bad drought in the US West, bees still in low supply this spring, no salmon fishing AT ALL on the west coast because of too small salmon populations—this is commercial fishing, too. Then there’s the daily business world in my state which probably applies to most other states these days: contracting economy, local governments budgets cut this year and facing more severe ones in the next year after that, property taxes revenue falling because of the shrinking housing market ….. which still shows no sign of bottoming out yet. Too much inventory and it’s growing because of foreclosures, new constructions finishing, etc.
In the NBC broadcast news this evening:
Airlines are cutting back severely on scheduled flights for the rest of the year; or after summer vacations. It’s just too expensive to keep flying the current schedules with the price of oil and their fuel needs. Major airports will have cutbacks in carriers and some smaller places will end up with very few carriers, even if they have been regional jets. Two years ago on The Oildrum.com I read some comment about an airline worker(?) at a conference remarking that in 10 years no planes will be flying at all, at least no commercial airlines.
GM is closing 4 plants that make SUV stuff; and they may discontinue the Hummer model! Hummers’ were quite the thing to have the past few years. Truck and SUV sales have not been good since the first of the year.
Quote from: Truck Sales Sink, Shaking Up Auto Market
Big Three Walloped By the Rush to Cars; Honda on the Rise
By JOSÉE VALCOURT and MATTHEW DOLANJune 4, 2008; Page B5 from WSJ
"Ford Motor Co.'s F-150 pickup truck has been the No. 1 seller almost every month over the past three decades. But in May, as consumers flocked to fuel-sipping models, two cars from Toyota and two from Honda Motor Co. outsold the F-150, pushing it down to the No. 5 spot in sales."
Electric cars are in the news again; or they seem to be more in the news to me.
There is some market in electricity prices—forward market?—that shows the fluctuations in electricity supply and prices. These fluctuations don’t appear on customer’s energy bills but it can predict the rise or fall of prices. There was a spike in this prices/supply in Mar/April and it showed a “75%” possible increase in electricity prices this summer. I don’t know if this applies to the whole US or what. It was in the WSJ on June 3 or 4th. I’ll try to find the link to it.
At least the **** Democratic primaries are over! Senator Obama looks like a definite for the Demo nominee; but I wouldn’t rule out senator Clinton trying something eve at the last minute to try again to get the position herself.
It seems quite a turnaround from the way things stood in public discourse and the national outlook and the economy just a year ago.
cheers,
shamba
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Personal Preparation List some accomplished, some not yet
I wrote this list about 6 months ago before the end of 2007. Some of these things I've accompllished some of them I havent. As of this date, 4-27-08, though, I will almost be done with any need for my $45.95 a month storage unit that I've had since my dad died and Mom moved out of the house. there was no furniture but a lot of other things I kept there--pictures, slides, various things Mom collected like all those glass cats my brother gave her! some of my own old toys, many(!) Christmas decorations--why do those accumulate so?! I had to make a decision about everything in there I've touched in the past year or so and it's is quite draining to just make a decision and not reminisce or "think" about the thing in my hands. The last 4 boxes will come home with me in the next 2 weeks.
Still to do or get finished: Have enough food storage for a few months, emergency supplies put together, solar oven to order, new gate, too.
I was planning on retiring after 25 years at my librarian jobs (combined years) anyway but the peak oil, peak climate, peak everything issues came to be part of my motivation. Have been retired 10 months now and it’s very nice but I need to do something to make a little more money coming in.
1. Paid off credit card debt totally from money I got from the lawsuit for a slip and fall that resulted in 2 broken arms in 2005. Arms healed up well and are functioning well.
2. Thinking I should buy some of the solar powered stuff I see advertised at different places. Not solar panels but other kinds of things—solar oven for example?
3. Thinking I should check sewing supplies and get a lighter weight sewing machine, nothing with all the embroidery things in it though!, and sewing again. My old machine is probably functional but it’s very heavy to handle and I don’t have just one place I can leave it up all the time.
4. Learning one Tai chi form from the classes at my yoga studio. Already have several years of hatha yoga skills and taught it for a while.
5. Walking at least 2 miles every day along our canal to lose a few more pounds and increased some physical stamina.
6. Lost enough weight to fit much better into clothes I like that I’ve have for a few years.
7. Learning how to cook more stuff from scratch. I didn’t have time to do much of this when working and in a hot climate in the summer inside cooking sucks totally! Hence, the idea of a solar oven and learn to use it. –Haven’t done this yet.
8. Getting things fixed in the house; like rewiring before copper wire and other goods and services related to it become just too expensive.
9. Changed lots of light bulbs that are the non incandescent kind. These are cooler in this climate anyway. Incandescent lights are terribly hot in the summer in southern Arizona.
10. More careful about turning out lights when I’m not using them. This was annoying when my brother visits and uses more lights than I do; he wasn’t willing to sit in the dark as much as I am.
11. Kept my mother’s cooking utensils, many knitting and crocheting needles and other basic supplies when I had to move her from her apartment to the dementia unit of the assisted housing where she lives now. I know have so many fiber arts supplies it’s overwhelming.
12. Thought about buying more insulation for the house.
13. Some of this process the past year has been observing the use of energy, all the stuff there is in the stores—food and things—and watching prices going up for food and energy. All of this is taking in all the information about some great changes that are coming I know for the latter part of my life and I wonder how much “less” of everything including quality of life is going to be different that my parent’s was.
14. Going to physical therapy for the problems in my two shoulders which the octopod thinks are tendonitis and a couple of bone spurs. With the inflammatory and exercises, hopefully I will get rid of this chronic problem and be able to do the exercises that will keep the bone spurs from getting worse. I’ve got the weights at home for most home exercises. The ones for my two broken elbows worked very well for their purpose.
15. I can’t see trying to grow my own food at this point but I could find a way to keep more food supplies on hand—and more food supplies on hand for my 8-10 cats.
16. Got tote bags to use for grocery stores and other places instead of using plastic bags. I keep them in the car so I’ll use them! Too easy to forget them.
17. Bought some patio chairs at the local St. Vincent De Paul store. Their clothes aren’t much but the chairs and furniture look in very good condition.
18. Don’t need to buy much as far as Christmas goes since it’s my brother and an elderly mother who mostly wants time with us and not stuff; Have a few friends to buy for some small gifts though.
19. I still love all the electronic stuff in the world but my old digital cameras works fine with the new computer. I bought a little more expensive one expecting it will last at least 4-5 years. Old scanner however doesn’t work at all with Vista. No support for it at the HP.com website so I’ve been looking at others. December might be a good month for sales of this kind of thing.
20. Next year, December 2007 right now, more stuff to actually act on. The psychological/emotional stuff is important to consider when facing a “life of less stuff and not every ending expansion”.
Still to do or get finished: Have enough food storage for a few months, emergency supplies put together, solar oven to order, new gate, too.
I was planning on retiring after 25 years at my librarian jobs (combined years) anyway but the peak oil, peak climate, peak everything issues came to be part of my motivation. Have been retired 10 months now and it’s very nice but I need to do something to make a little more money coming in.
1. Paid off credit card debt totally from money I got from the lawsuit for a slip and fall that resulted in 2 broken arms in 2005. Arms healed up well and are functioning well.
2. Thinking I should buy some of the solar powered stuff I see advertised at different places. Not solar panels but other kinds of things—solar oven for example?
3. Thinking I should check sewing supplies and get a lighter weight sewing machine, nothing with all the embroidery things in it though!, and sewing again. My old machine is probably functional but it’s very heavy to handle and I don’t have just one place I can leave it up all the time.
4. Learning one Tai chi form from the classes at my yoga studio. Already have several years of hatha yoga skills and taught it for a while.
5. Walking at least 2 miles every day along our canal to lose a few more pounds and increased some physical stamina.
6. Lost enough weight to fit much better into clothes I like that I’ve have for a few years.
7. Learning how to cook more stuff from scratch. I didn’t have time to do much of this when working and in a hot climate in the summer inside cooking sucks totally! Hence, the idea of a solar oven and learn to use it. –Haven’t done this yet.
8. Getting things fixed in the house; like rewiring before copper wire and other goods and services related to it become just too expensive.
9. Changed lots of light bulbs that are the non incandescent kind. These are cooler in this climate anyway. Incandescent lights are terribly hot in the summer in southern Arizona.
10. More careful about turning out lights when I’m not using them. This was annoying when my brother visits and uses more lights than I do; he wasn’t willing to sit in the dark as much as I am.
11. Kept my mother’s cooking utensils, many knitting and crocheting needles and other basic supplies when I had to move her from her apartment to the dementia unit of the assisted housing where she lives now. I know have so many fiber arts supplies it’s overwhelming.
12. Thought about buying more insulation for the house.
13. Some of this process the past year has been observing the use of energy, all the stuff there is in the stores—food and things—and watching prices going up for food and energy. All of this is taking in all the information about some great changes that are coming I know for the latter part of my life and I wonder how much “less” of everything including quality of life is going to be different that my parent’s was.
14. Going to physical therapy for the problems in my two shoulders which the octopod thinks are tendonitis and a couple of bone spurs. With the inflammatory and exercises, hopefully I will get rid of this chronic problem and be able to do the exercises that will keep the bone spurs from getting worse. I’ve got the weights at home for most home exercises. The ones for my two broken elbows worked very well for their purpose.
15. I can’t see trying to grow my own food at this point but I could find a way to keep more food supplies on hand—and more food supplies on hand for my 8-10 cats.
16. Got tote bags to use for grocery stores and other places instead of using plastic bags. I keep them in the car so I’ll use them! Too easy to forget them.
17. Bought some patio chairs at the local St. Vincent De Paul store. Their clothes aren’t much but the chairs and furniture look in very good condition.
18. Don’t need to buy much as far as Christmas goes since it’s my brother and an elderly mother who mostly wants time with us and not stuff; Have a few friends to buy for some small gifts though.
19. I still love all the electronic stuff in the world but my old digital cameras works fine with the new computer. I bought a little more expensive one expecting it will last at least 4-5 years. Old scanner however doesn’t work at all with Vista. No support for it at the HP.com website so I’ve been looking at others. December might be a good month for sales of this kind of thing.
20. Next year, December 2007 right now, more stuff to actually act on. The psychological/emotional stuff is important to consider when facing a “life of less stuff and not every ending expansion”.
Updates
K. got himself into a great mess of trouble 2 mons. ago with the local La Jolla issue sof children's Pool vs. Seal's Beach. Made 2 emergency trips to there to see what I could do. His lawyer said this should be a wake up call for him and me. for him for sure.
Anyway all of that has really gotten to me and my handsome orange cat Omar has disappeared. that just adds to the atmosphere of depression that comes and goes in my head the past 2 months. He is at my flickr.com links under any of the Cats headings.
Food prices are beginning to look frightening as they climb and climb steadily everyweek. Shortages of food are appearing serious everywhere in the world--rice in particular, maybe wheat or other things will follow. Great! then we'll have $5 gallons of gas and $5 loaves of bread!
Anyway all of that has really gotten to me and my handsome orange cat Omar has disappeared. that just adds to the atmosphere of depression that comes and goes in my head the past 2 months. He is at my flickr.com links under any of the Cats headings.
Food prices are beginning to look frightening as they climb and climb steadily everyweek. Shortages of food are appearing serious everywhere in the world--rice in particular, maybe wheat or other things will follow. Great! then we'll have $5 gallons of gas and $5 loaves of bread!
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