Tuesday, October 28, 2008

October 23rd and October 28th

October 28th

Markets seem to be holding their own past 2 days—no big swings or freak outs so far this week. Correction at 1:00 p.m.: big late-day move Tuesday, barreling higher and lifting the Dow Jones industrials more than 800 points as bargain hunters, buying in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, grabbed stocks that have been pounded lower in recent sessions. All the major indexes were up at least 9 percent.

Still pretty warm this week, in mid 90s. I moved the solar oven out onto the front porch today to cook. Used up last of white basmati rice and put in some yellow split peas. It comes out quite appealing with the white and bright yellow together. I put it with some romaine lettuce and salt and pepper today. It was fine that way.

Got reference to see a lawyer about estate procedures.
Cheers,
shamba

Oct 23rd Beautiful Fall Day in Southern Arizona

High just around 90 I think. It’s lovely outside. I could sit outside on the back patio and drink hot coffee at 2:30 p.m if I wanted! Now that’s the kind of weather I like all the time! J
Used Solar oven today but as an electrical oven. No sun at all during the day in the back for cooking and even in the front porch it’s limited after 1-2 p.m. So, I put in some rice and plugged in the oven in the back and turned the oven on it’s LOW setting. It has LOW and HIGH and you have to turn on the LOW switch before you can turn on the HIGH switch. So, far I’ve discovered the LOW is just fine for cooking the things I cooked all summer using the solar oven.
The rice cooked beautifully in the time it cooked in the strictly solar oven, about an hour. This is still so much better than me cooking rice on my inside stove, I may just keep cooking rice this way. J If I do I’ll use it for cooking everything else I’ve cooked in it. I think it might use less electricity than using the kitchen but I don’t really know that.

And it’s still warm enough during the day that I don’t want to use the kitchen if I can since the AC is switched off today. My daytime temperature for turning on the AC is 95 degrees and above. After almost 6 months of AC it’s a pleasure to have it off and come in and out without thinking about it.

Sprinkled about a cup of shredded cheese on the rice it’s last 5-10 minutes and put a pan of frozen peas next to it to warm up. This and some leftover chicken for late lunch/early supper.

Cheers,
Shamba

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Oct 22, Wednesday

DJA down to 8519 today; it was at 9400?? something on Monday. No kickstart to the market or economy seems to keep the engine going for very long. The market only responds positively to any efforts made for a few days or hours the past 5 weeks. Barrel Oil: $66.75; Local gas: 2.93

I noticed that the Tulsi solar ovens (hybrids) are back ordered until early to mid-November. I went to one site to check on a recipe, I’d seen earlier.

Gotta run,
shamba

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Oct 14th 16th

October 16th
Got 2007 income tax off yesterday—I get a small Fed refund and Mom does, too. Plus we’ll get the 600 dollars everyone else had in the early summer.

Gathered up clean clothes to take to the Stratford where Mom lived. They can use her clothing after all.

Last pres debate last night—I learned a few more things about both candidates’ economic plans.
Last night on NBC broadcast news, the anchor said something at the beginning of the news that brought it home to me that the recession/depression/downturn has “officially” arrived. I don’t remember how he put it—Brian Williams, that is—but it was like most economists now recognize not just a downturn in the economy, but a severe recession. Roubini is not the only one saying the most severe downturn in many year.

It just seems like it can’t be denied anymore, a bad downturn, how long and how bad is anyone’s judgement call at the moment. But we’re in for it now.
Cheers,
shamba

October 14th
From financialsense.com today:

Earlier in Spring, I responded to readers’ emails asking where I thought the bottom would come? Then… I responded that the major bottom would only come when the Dow Ind was somewhere between 7,140 and 8,568. This marks a 50% to 40% drop from the all time high of 14,280 – ditto for other indexes. Most responded at the time that I was absolutely crazy. This has been the historical norm in almost all earlier panics, depressions, and recessions. We are told how the markets eventually recover – but…it took 29 years for the markets to recover from 1929! Do you have that much time to wait in this go around? I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too. Contact InformationFred Cederholm Creston, IL USA

Monday, October 13, 2008

Oct 13,

Did half of my shoulder exercises this morning to strengthen rotator cuff muscles. I have to get back to doing those more regularly and doing more execise during the week. I haven't done anything but stretches somedays since Sept 23rd when Mom went into the hospital.

Use volcano stove last night to heat up some food and it was pleasant to sit outside in the very cool evening with the stove out on the back patio.

I have to start notifying official places like Social Security and life insurance about my mom's death although I can't do much until I get death certificates.

something to look forward to: it's cool enough to try bread baking inside. :)

DJA, is up today after IMF and other financial meetings over the weekend between US and Europeans. Of course, for how long, who knows?

cheers,
shamba

Oct 9-12, 2008

Many things happened in these days so one entry ends up for all of them as I wrote them over the 3 days.

October 12th Sunday

We had a lovely 75 degree yesterday—sudden low coming through forabout 3 days. We had a nice memorial for Mom yesterday, My cousins were able to come and many friends of mine and hers. K. and I had put up lots of pictures of her life and our childhood and old neighborhood and our various cats: Puff, Alex, Patch. Eveyone really liked looking at the pictures and just seemed to like talking to each other so that our short service started late!

The pastor did a nice job, theme was my mom’s life was peaceful and abundant and good.
It was a good day,
Nmaste, Shamba

Friday, October 10, 2008
International Trade Seizing Up Due to Banking Crisis (Updated)
I have been more than a tad concerned about near-paralysis in the money markets and imploding equity prices. But this e-mail, from a well connected international investor not prone to alarm or (normally) the use of capital letters says that the banking crisis is staring to bring international shipping to a halt.By way of background, letters of credit of various sorts are essential for trade. For instance, imagine the difficulty if you are, say, a Chinese manufacturer who wants to sell his wares to buyers overseas. How can he be sure the goods he ships will ever be paid for? Imagine the considerable difficulty and cost of chasing a deadbeat in a foreign country. Letters of credit. issued by banks, assure payment. They can also serve to finance the shipment (ie, fund the inventory while it is in transit).Not only are banks now leery of lending to each other for much longer than overnight, they are also starting to refuse to honor letters of credit from other banks. From the above-mentioned reader:

At the end of the day, if every counterparty is bad then you don't have a market and you don't have an economy. I spoke to another friend of mine this afternoon, whose father has been in the shipping business forever. Pristine credit rating, rock solid balance sheet. He says if he takes his BNP Paribas letter of credit to Citi today for short term funding for his vessels, they won't give it to him. That means he can't ship goods, which means that within the next 2 weeks, physical shortages of commodities begins to show up. THE CENTRAL BANKS CAN'T LET THAT HAPPEN OR WE HAVE NO ECONOMY, LET ALONE A CREDIT SYSTEM.

We spoke later in the evening and said he had heard of another instance of a trade transaction failing, different parties entirely, this a shipment of coal, again due to the unwillingness of the seller's bank to accept an LC from the buyer.Update 12:10 AM: Confirmation comes from the Financial Post, "Grain piles up in ports" (hat tip reader Vox Sanus):

The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don't trust the financial institution named in the buyer's letter of credit, analysts said."There's all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. "The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy."So far the problem is mostly being felt in U. S. and South American ports, but observers say it is only a matter of time before it hits Canada."We've got a nightmare in front of us and a lot of people are concerned it's going to get a lot worse," said Anthony Temple, a grain marketing expert based in Vancouver....Access to credit is key to the survival of maritime trade and insiders now say the supply is being severely restricted. More than 90% of the world's trade by volume goes by ship..."The credit crisis has made banks nervous and the last thing on their minds is making fresh loans," Omar Nokta, an analyst at investment bank Dahlman Rose, said in an interview with Reuters.While shipping has always been a cyclical industry whose fortunes rise and fall with the global economy, analysts said the current crisis over the drying up of credit is something they have never seen before.Jason Myers, head of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, said exporters across Canada are getting caught up in the turmoil as customers delay payments, forcing them to shoulder the cost."What some companies are saying is we can't pay you until our customer pays us, so it becomes a question of who bears the financial risk and the cost," Mr. Myers said. "We're hearing about it more and more."What that means is that manufacturers are getting hit as revenue slows and longtime customers disappear from the order book altogether. As profits decline, investment in product development starts to fall, too, he said.The Canadian Wheat Board, one of the world's biggest grain marketers, has yet to refuse a customer because of poor credit, according to a spokeswoman. "As of this moment we haven't run into that problem," said Maureen Fitzhenry,

October 10th, Friday

Headlines from finance.yahoo.com in the morning:
Dow Plunges 350 Pts Over Credit Concerns in Roller Coaster Session
Later 450 points to 8100 or so … Oil is at 70$ or so.
October 9th
October 8th of last year, the Dow peaked intraday at 14,134.
Today 8666.24 Fall of 591.86 … :0 :O S&P 916.68
Or from cryptygon.com
Dow Jones Suffers Biggest Percentage Decline in 20 Years

October 10th, 2008

The Dow Jones index fell 678.9 to 8579.2, its biggest percentage drop since Black Monday in October 1987 and its third biggest points decline in history.

In a staggering final hour of trading, the Dow fell more than 400 points after Standard & Poor’s downgraded car maker General Motors and investors were forced to sell off shares to meet margin calls.

The S&P 500 fell 75.0 to 909.9 while the Nasdaq closed down 95.2 at 1645.1, its lowest level since August 2003.

Trading volumes soared, sending volatility near to all time highs, as the Dow closed down 7.3pc. That came exactly a year after the index hit an all-time high on October 9, 2007….

October 9th
October 8th of last year, the Dow peaked intraday at 14,134.
Today 8666.24 … :0 :O S&P 916.68

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Oct 6-8th

Oct 6th Monday: DJA down 400 points then 500 point, below 10,000 –

update later: 550 … 600 … it’s 11:11 a.m my time and 2:11 EDT. At 11:35 a.m, 749 points!! I’ve been watching the bolded red headlines at Yahoo finance instead of reading the much smaller print that shows all the fluctuations in the market. So less than two more hours to go till close of business today … I laughed when I saw the 600 pt drop … too much tension in my life with my Mom’s death and this stuff going on ??? Probably, also I feel like I did my job for my Mom and I’ve done not too badly in being prepared for this stock market/economic/societal change stuff coming on for the past 2 years and now is more than mainstream. I think the laughter is like I can cry, wail and/or I can laugh. I do now wish I acted on my IRAs and deferred comp earlier … oh, well I prepared for what I could prompted by my own intuition.

12:21 p.m. my time. 800 points …. 40 some minutes to go till markets close today … and tomorrow …. Or not tomorrow …. 800 is more than the 770 something last week which was the biggest one day drop in years … In June the market did go down about 1000 but it wasn’t all on one day … DJA ended up today by being down on 300 something instead of 800 something.
The time for Ure’s (www.urbansurvival.com) event is Oct 7th 7:10 am UTC—London Time that‘s like middle of the night for MST which we are on. I think it’s about 12:30 a.m.

Many other sources besides George Ure’s site have been seeing something like this coming, too, and that includes financial astrologers (!) and technical stock analysts, and all across the spectrum of left to right in my readings.

October 7th:

Quote from finance.yahoo.com in big type headlines with a red border around it:

“Stocks Sink Again as Investors Look for Fed Rate Cut; Dow Plunges Over 500 as S&P 500 Hits 5-Year Low- AP “

“The misery worsened on Wall Street Tuesday, with stocks piling on losses late in the session and bringing the two-day decline in the Dow Jones industrials to more than 875 points amid escalating worries about credit markets and the financial sector. The Dow lost more than 500 points and all the major indexes slid more than 5 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 index saw its first close below 1,000 in five years.”

DJA closed at 9447. If this keeps on it’ll be 8000 by the end of the week. :O

Went out today to get flowers for Saturday and went through spam filled email boxes.
So, anything else going to happen this week?

OCTOBER 8th

It continues …. 9200? Something this morning ….
Interest rate cuts went down all over the world …. President is callingfor a G7 or 8? Emergency financial meeting this weekend … No official signs of bank holidays yet but they are still a possibility, I’m sure.

More later .... this is beginning to really upset people out in the public ...

Sunday, October 5, 2008

October 5th

Okay, sleep patterns last night very badly disrupted. I watched a movie s from 2-3 a.m. and slept from 4-9. Still feel pretty good though. I had washed the past 3 days worth of dishes and cleaned up the kitchen Saturday night. Everything was just accumulating everywhere since last Tusday evening.

Caught up with laundry, got extra cash, went through food on kitchen table (from Safeway store 2 days ago) and got them put away. There were no perishables in there though. I also checked money in the Bof A account (this was my mom's account) and picked up some canned cat food really marked down at Bashas'. I'm running out of sugar--how did that happen?

Got out my solar oven, made corn bread--:) . I haven't used it or cooked much on my own the past two weeks, this is always soothing for me these days so it was time to cook something from scratch again. I used the electric option today as well as the oven being in the sun. It's supposed to cycle between using the sun and electricity--anyway the bread came out very well.

Then I decided Bush's Vegetarian baked beans would go well with the corn bread and I didn't want to make it myself today. Now later, in the afternoon, I decided I wanted some rice for dinner with the corn bread and beans. Sun was all gone but I just plugged in the oven again so I didn't have to move the oven to the front of the house. Beside, it's makes rice so much easier and better than I can on the stove! :)

I moved some whole wheat flour and white flour to where I would see it the next time I look at the storage "shelves" Especially now that the weather is cooling off, 80s during the days, I want to try the bread cooking and pizza cooking I didn't get to this summer.

K. comes this week to come to Mom's memorial, I have some more to call about that and flowers to select this week.

Re: Urbansurvival.com's Fall october 2008 predictions, it's this weeks as a time frame for a rather big event that will be causing some distress for us emotionally for 5-6 months. no guarantees, something will really come about but I'm as prepared as I can be for anything big after all these months of storing, cooking, practicing more for cooking and batteries and cash.
I'll need all these things anyway, it turns out as planning Mom's memorial service and having company this weekend will take some extra from my usual routine.

I expect more stock market grief and financial grief as this event. that'll be bad enough so I hope that's all it is.

cheers,
shamba

Saturday, October 4, 2008

October 1-4, 2008

My mother took her last breath about an hour after I left her yesterday afternoon. The time was 4:20 p.m. I had to go back as they called me right after I got home from seeing her. She went peacefully and more quickly than I thought she would. She died the last day of the month of September 2008.

To make a long story short, M. and I will be planning a service for Saturday next weekend. My brother can come for 3 days.

I’m doing okay but seem to be very tired from all the tension of her illness, and all the other news out there!

Bailout/rescue bill passed the Senate first on Wednesday and House on Friday. It was packed with all kinds of stuff before the voting. We’ll see what this or doesn’t do for confidence in the markets. Public citizens were enraged by the bills but businesses and banks were for it as a confidence booster. I can see both points of view and I didn’t express an opinion. R. our broker really wanted it to pass. He ‘s sounds truly worried about how long this coming recession/downturn will last—he was afraid it would be longer than 2-3 years. Scary because of him feeling this way going along with all the predictions the last 2-3 years about this possibilities. Because the bill WON'T STOP THE DOWNTURN COMING but it will slow it down or make it not so bad.

Namaste and Om Shanti,
Shamba/sheri